Military planners in Pakistan have landed
themselves in an existential mess by backing their American allies a few
decades ago to convert free-living tribals into the Taliban. They took this
dangerous step to help create strategic depth in Afghanistan against any Indian
offensive. Now, a flaming frontier has appeared on the western border of Pakistan, and extremists from these border
regions are eating away the integrity of the state through uncontrollable
terrorist incursions even as far east as Lahore.
Undoubtedly the people in the heartland of Pakistan,
in Sind and Punjab, wish to stabilize their
western frontier and bring internal peace to their country. Can the military do
this swiftly enough without moving the compass 180 degrees to the locus of
threat in the west? Can this be done without refiguring Pakistan’s strategic depth as lying to its east,
in India?
What will it take the governments of both countries to achieve this shift in
policy and military thinking?
The political animosity of over sixty years
cannot easily be forgotten by anyone, and so-called confidence-building
measures will be blocked from time to time by bitter memories and fears that
the enemy now coming in the guise of a friend is cleverer than he really is.
However, history affords some heart-warming examples, notably the cemented
friendship between France
and Germany in a new Europe after several centuries of warfare, conquest, and
counter conquest. The leaders who cautiously built up war-torn Europe with the
beginnings of the European Economic Community
would, if called to account today, quickly disown having held any intention of
building the future European Union. But what is an undeniable fact today is the
wealth and security of Europe. So, can we hope
for a coming rapprochement between India
and Pakistan?
What moves perceptions around quickly
enough is money, or the prospect of more of it. Undoubtedly, the leaders in
both countries, as well as leaders in countries selling arms, have a lot
invested in the present military face-off. It would be impossible to bring
peace to South Asia without holding out the
real prospect of the leaders being immeasurably better off by peace breaking
out. The roadmap for such a consummation, however devoutly to be wished, is
unclear, muddy in parts, and most of it is trackless. But none can deny its
potential as none can deny how wonderful life would be if there were no poverty
in South Asia.
An economically vibrant South
Asia could achieve the dual blessing of peace and prosperity. The
second most powerful man in the world, in terms of the assessment made by
Forbes, and its greatest salesman visited India,
primarily to sell arms and create jobs in America. Eight years ago, the world
looked to Obama to create the miracle of change in the world’s most
conservative country. Failing in that attempt, can he accomplish a greater
miracle by cementing peace in South Asia to
bring about an economic upturn? Can cross border trade be vitalized through
American initiatives to further enrich the rich of both countries, and
incidentally relieve the poor of abject misery? Obama should go for this
tantalizing objective, for not only would he bring many more jobs home, but he
would end the menace of terrorism and become more popular in American memory
than FDR himself! The only other option he has to end terrorism he has already
tried, of bombing some unfortunate people!
Even if the American President on his
momentous visit to India’s Republic Day celebrations in 2015 could miraculously
come out with a plan for peace and prosperity in South Asia, someone is bound
to raise the question of Kashmir. Oddly enough, Bollywood, even after Haider,
its latest offering, reminds everyone that Kashmir is very like Switzerland, to
which mountainous country its filmmakers have shifted their crew under present
unsafe circumstances. Now, Switzerland
was war-torn at the end of the Napoleonic period, riven by two religions,
divided by at least three languages, dirt poor, and an environmental disaster.
Wise leadership, hard work, and above all community cooperation have made this
little country a heaven on earth within a century. And French and German
leaders must be blessing their own good luck that they did not try to hold on
to Switzerland.
Do Indian and Pakistani leaders ever
read history? So let us present this thought to Obama and hope he can make
something of it.
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