Xi’s XI
Doordarshan's [the Indian state-owned TV station] stand-in newscaster may have made the
biggest howler of the decade when during an early morning newscast she hurried
called the Chinese President ‘Eleven Jinping!’ But intuitively she pointed us
in the direction of searching for the top Chinese eleven that will be fielded
to encounter India. If anything smacks of oriental inscrutability, it is the
way Chinese leaders come to power, and it is always difficult for the outsider
to know what positions of power they hold in the command structure. Here is an
attempt to help Team India decipher the Chinese puzzle.
Already, Xi has said concisely what he expects from the
match – China will be the world’s factory, while India will be its back office.
It is a reasonable prognostication considering that the backbone of India’s
modernization was composed of its vast cadre of babus and accountants who
managed India during its imperial times, and later as well, and the present-day
follow through in the service sector by its IT professionals. If the future is
on such predictable lines, Xi hopes China will be the captain of the world’s
industry, giving it economic pre-eminence in the foreseeable future, while
India will be satisfied with an unassuming middleclass role. So, what is his
eleven facing us today?
Xi, a Bradman-like captain, concentrates in his hands more
power than any Chinese leader has had since the days of Mao Ze Dong. He is President
of China, the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, the head of the
seven-man Standing Committee of its Politburo, and the Chairman of that
country’s Central Military Commission. This unchallenged numero uno has as his
running mate, Li Keqiang, the Premier in charge of the State Council, and hence
of government, and also his number two in the Politburo. Li holds a doctorate
in economics and a degree in law, and during the Cultural Revolution received
the honour of being an outstanding person in the study of Mao Ze Dong Thought!
These two men hope to better the performance of the two
previous governments of China. They expect to surpass the Jiang Zemin period in
rapid economic progress. At the same time they wish to give growth a human face
better than the Hu-Wen duo who followed. Xi has appointed a special Reform Group
to bring party and people in line. We have in them the numbers 3 and 4 in the
batting order.
The openers who are commissioned to blunt all attacks are
the western-educated, sophisticated and well-connected Wang Yi, the Minister
for Foreign Affairs, whose father-in-law was secretary to Zhou Enlai; and the
First Lady, Peng Liyuan, China’s well-loved singing star, who is also WHO’s
goodwill ambassador, a buddhist and an honorary PLA general of all things, to keep
the balance and make everyone happy.
Ever since Nehru in his grandiose way thought he would lead
the Chinese into the comity of nations, and at the same time shepherd the
Tibetans, the long mountainous border has remained a tinderbox ready to be
ignited, and it has bedevilled relationships between the two most populous
countries in the world. The Tibetan ‘question’ will dominate their relations.
Hence the Chinese attack team will be shaped by Guo Shengkun, minister in
charge of public security, who shares power with military generals in decision
making on border issues, and Geng Huichang, who heads their secret service. Though
not in the top eleven, these two can always be replaced by the vice-chairs of
the CMC, Generals Fan Changlong and Xu Qiliang, if it comes to bowling bouncers
over the border. We can also expect googlies and doosras from Yang Jiechi, a
top state councillor in charge of foreign affairs, a student of the LSE, with
experience as ambassador in Washington, who cultivated both the Bush presidents.
An intellectual realist of the ‘Kissinger’ school, he will shape policy to be
smoothed out for implementation by Wang Yi.
Zhang Gaoli is an extraordinary all-rounder, reminding one
of Keith Miller, Ian Botham, and Vinoo Mankad. He is a member of the
Politburo’s standing committee, the first vice-premier of government, a former
protégé of Jiang Zemin, with deep personal experience in the oil industry, and
to top it all a member of Xi’s Reform group overlooking economics and ecology.
He will help shape China’s bid to become the world’s leading economy in this
decade.
Liu Yandong, 70 years old, is the only woman in the
Politburo, a vice-premier of government and a member of the reform group. A
‘princess,’ whose father went to Cornell in the 1930s, she has been the
communist party’s personal interface with national minorities, faith groups,
and non-party people’s organisations. China is bound to launch ‘a charm
offensive’ in its dealings with India and other nations, and she will
masterminding that stabilize the middle order.
The wicket will be kept by Yu Zengsheng, with unique links
with Chinese leadership, past and present. A descendant of the Qing dynasty,
China’s erstwhile imperial family, he was also a protégé of both Deng Xiaoping
and Jiang Zemin, and the only top Chinese leader who has had the gumption to
criticize Mao vehemently, and yet be seen as a loyal communist. His step-mother
was Jiang Qing, Mao’s last wife, and one of the discredited gang of four! A
reformist within limits, he chairs the Chinese Peoples’ Consultative Conference,
tasked to make external democracy compatible with the communist party.
Safe stonewalling can be expected from Liu Yunshan, a party
loyalist, who heads the party secretariat, and who for decades was head of the
party’s propaganda department. He as a member of the politburo’s standing
committee will continue its conservative hold over media and the internet.
This is the team that will face India, and we should hope
that India’s leaders, opinion makers, and media will be able to distinguish
between the different strokes that will be dealt out over time and in
accordance with the circumstances. The Indian team should not make the West-serving
mistake of seeing Chinese initiatives as emanating from a monolith to be
attacked all the time. India’s response should be nuanced to take advantage of
diplomatic openings so that a positive commercial rapprochement can be achieved
with its greatest neighbour and the world leader in waiting.
[with apologies to
Doordarshan]
Published in The Economic & Political Weekly of India, Oct 4, 2014
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